It is interesting to retrace the logical thread of an analysis coming from the Twitter social sphere relating to the Western world on the combat operations of the Russian aviation and Ukrainian air defense under the title “We are approaching a situation in which the Russians are gradually conquering the sky ”.
The current scenario, in which the Russians use new missiles such as the Kh-69 and soon the Izdeliye 720, poses a serious problem for Western air defenses. The modernization of missiles such as the Kh-101 and R-800 has increased the effectiveness of these weapons. Furthermore, the Soviet-Ukrainian air defenses were exhausted months ago and now rely on older S-125 systems donated by Poland. These systems could complement each other if Western air defense systems had a sufficient supply of missiles, but they also face a shortage of ammunition, which has been reported for at least two months.
In recent days, Russian operations near Chasiv Jar have been constantly supported by aircraft. On the one hand, we see the Russians performing massive armored maneuvers with air support, while the Ukrainians are largely limited to defensive actions with numerous FPV drones.
Some drones can act as anti-artillery weapons, but due to their limited range, FPV drones have proven effective as active mines, significantly delaying the Russian advance. The Russian missile industry has shown resilience and is winning the battle of attrition against Western air defense systems following the demise of Soviet systems.
While many are unaware of this war of attrition between missiles and air defenses, it is worth noting that the Ukrainians had over 10,000 anti-aircraft guided missiles for their Soviet and Western systems, but they are now in short supply. Potential The turning point in this conflict could be foreign intervention. However, we are witnessing a scenario in which a possible foreign battlegroup may not have adequate air defense systems to protect its operations on Ukrainian territory.
Inertia and belated political decisions by Western leaders, combined with Russia’s long-term strategy, could potentially prevail even over European forces stationed in Ukraine. There are several reasons why the West is losing this war, but the main problem appears to be the lack of strong leadership.
Meanwhile, the Russian social sphere claims that “Russia may break through the front line in Ukraine in the coming weeks.” Business Insider writes about it referring to RAND Corporation analyst Brayden Sperling. According to his predictions, today the most favorable conditions have been created for a breakthrough for the Russian Armed Forces since the inception of the Northern Military District.
“Some sections of the front line may be on the verge of collapsing,” he noted. For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on the contrary, an increasingly desperate situation is developing, including a shortage of air defense and a lack of Western assistance. Previously, the Politico newspaper had given a similar forecast, underlining that Ukraine could lose this summer.
Graziella Giangiulio
